Delegate Dilemma

Oh what a tangled web the Democrats weave...

The Democrats have done two things to their presidential nominated system that may bite them in the backside this year:

#1 They award delegates (pledged delegates) on a proportional basis - essencially to allow for second place to get some points in each state.

#2 They allowed for 'Super Delegates' from each state. These are Democratic Governors, Democratic Memebers of Congress, old Democratic leaders, and former Democratic presidents.

Why does this matter?

There are 4,049 Delegates overall. One candidate needs to have 2025 to ensure the nomination.

3,253 are Pledged Delegates. These are the delegates candidates earn by winning primaries and caucuses. Again, these are given out on a proportional basis, i.e. In Minnesota (72 Pledged Delegates), Barack Obama won 67% of the vote to Hillary's 32%. That gave Obama 48 pledged delegates, and Clinton 24 - based on percentages. Some states will even break down those delegates based on how many precincts they won - but it typically averages out to each candidate getting delegates at the same ratio as the popular vote.

The remaining 796 delegates are Super Delegates. As I listed above, these are the party big-wigs. They can choose to vote however they like, change their mind, decide whenever they want - as long as they make a decision by the Democratic National Convention. Typically, the Superdelegates will vote along the lines of how their district or their state votes. (There are 16 superdelegates from Minnesota, some have already endorsed Obama, others to Clinton).

As it stands right now, Barack Obama has the most pledged delegates at 908. Clinton is right behind with 884. But once you add the Superdelegates, Clinton holds a 1079-1009 lead.

357 Superdelegates have not endorsed. 1435 pledged delegates are left to awarded.

So, let's say this race goes on pace as we've been going - pretty much 50-50... maybe even give one candidate a little edge 53-47% over the next two months (which would be a landslide in the election).

That would give Clinton (with 53%) 760 pledged delegates through the rest of the race, giving her a total of 1839 delegates (well short of the 2025 total) and It would give Obama (with 47%) 675 - a total of 1684.

Neither would have the 2025 need to ensure the nomination... leaving the decision up to the Superdelegates.

Clinton would need 186 of the super delegates. Obama would basically need all of them. In this instance, would appear Clinton would get the Nod. However, it's unlikely that the electorate will break in favor of either candidate by that much.

SO - according to DNC Chair Howard Dean - he wants to avoid what's called a "Brokered Convention" at all costs. A Brokered Covnention is something we haven't seen in decades, where the delegates on the floor actully do deal-making at the convention - and go back and forth until one candidate gets the majority vote - typically after several ballots.

This would be bad for the party because it would only allow a few weeks for the democrats to get behind one candidate. You run the risk of sore losers, jaded voters, and a fractured party.... and ultimately open the door for the Republicans to win what's considered - at the moment - to be an unwinnable election.

What you may see happen is if one candidate does start to pull out ahead after Texas and Ohio vote, the DNC Chair may have to get both campaigns in a room and say "Look, we need to have one of you drop out and the other run as VP".

The interesting thing is Obama will be going on a run the next couple of weeks (likely winning 8 of the next 9). If his momentum carries him to a win and close second in the delegate-rich Texas and Ohio respectively - Clinton would likely be asked to step down. If she wins both Texas and Ohio, there will be more butting heads. Clinton doesn't lose well.

The problem will come if Obama is asked to sit down and run as VP if Hillary sweeps Texas and Ohio by close margins. It would turn so many people off who have never been involved in the process. And in my opinon, the democrats have a very real chance of once again, "grabbing defeat out of the jaws of victory".

The superdelegates shouldn't be deciding the nominee.