(The following is a hypothetical letter written by Barack Obama in response to John McCain's Q & A with Newsweek earlier this month. It is suggested you read the Q & A - a simple, 5 minute, read - before continuing.
This hypothetical letter is in response to Joe Buri's request - and is in no way associated with the Obama campaign. It does, however, represent the views of the Obama campaign as published in media reports and online research)
To the Editors of Newsweek, the McCain Campaign, and the American public,
I write today out of disappointment. As I've said before, I admire John McCain; His valor, his courage, his love of his country – but after reading his most recent article, I'm left to wonder who John McCain really is.
When asked about how he will beat me, he hit his campaign themes of Reform, Prosperity, and Peace. While all these precepts are well and good, I struggle to see how he will accomplish these goals when he supports so many of the failed Bush policies of the last 8 years.
Take 'Reform'. If you want real reform, you need to make a fundamental change in the way things work in Washington. While in the past, Senator McCain has bucked the trend – he has filled his staff with Washington lobbyists. In fact his campaign manager Rick Davis is lobbyist with a checkered past with numerous questionable deals to bring funding to his interests. You can't bring real reform when you're surrounded by people paid by the special interests. That's not bottom-up reform, that's top-down status quo.
McCain has closed out the public on his Town Hall meetings, he has failed to admonish the 527s (similar to Swift boat Veterans For Truth) who promote racist and absolutely false smears against my candidacy. In fact McCain has continually claimed that Hamas is rooting for my candidacy to prevail, and have linked my candidacy with that terrorist group because of it. I have no desire to work with Hamas. This is not reform. This is the same old politics of the past.
The second point is "Prosperity". Prosperity for who? The top 2% who are paying less in taxes (15%) on their hedge funds and
Capital gains, while their secretaries are being taxed at a rate nearly double that? Is that what McCain means by prosperity? McCain said in 2001 and 2003 that the Bush tax cuts to the wealthy were a bad idea. Today, he says they should stay in place until 2010 – if not make them permanent. And McCain wants to give tax breaks to the CEOs of companies who have given themselves billions of dollars in bonuses – yet lay-off workers left and right. That's just not good policy – and it will mean prosperity for a very few.
The third theme is Peace. Now, again, I respect McCain military record, and as I've noted – despite my acknowledgement of his accomplishments, he refuses to recognize the 20 years of service I've put into our country on the ground level – working in the extremely poor communities of Chicago and working with churches and community groups to bring real change from the bottom up.
But aside from that, McCain has supported this failed war in Iraq. Despite his objections to the early strategy, he has been a constant defender of the decision to go into Iraq. My question for Sen. McCain is this: What constitutes victory? Do you believe we are going to eradicate every single terrorist in the world? What exactly will show we 'won' in Iraq? The damage we have done and the lives we have ruined cannot be undone – and it was poor judgment – judgment McCain stood behind – that got us into Iraq.
The truth is McCain said – point blank – if it means being in Iraq 100 years, fine, we'll be there 100 years. That's not the mentality to have with this crisis. We need to undo what we've done immediately. McCain said victory is no American casualties… but our young men and women are still coming home in flag-draped caskets every day. And there is no end in site. Even if we hypothetically say we kill all the terrorists in Iraq… then what? I've got news for Mr. McCain: There are a lot of other terrorists in a lot of other countries that still hate us. And the number grows exponentially when we are in the Middle East. Our presence alone exasperates the problem. Again – McCain wants reform? Well you can't have reform with the cowboy diplomacy of the Bush Administration.
A couple of other small points: There was a Senate Intelligence Committee report about the administration allegedly misleading the nation on prewar intelligence. McCain said he "hasn't read the report". That frightens me. For someone who stands so lock-step with the administration to not have read a report like that – it should concern us all.
Also, McCain says he never commented on the media's coverage of Hillary Clinton – saying it was in the prepared remarks but that he didn't say it out loud. One Problem: He DID say it. Watch the speech. This kind of denial is also concerning.
In wrapping up, I want to address McCain's claim that I went back on my word to accept public financing for my presidential campaign. Yes, I did indeed say I would take the 80 million dollars of public financing that is allotted under the McCain Feingold campaign finance bill. But after further consideration, I have changed my mind. I'm trusting the American people to donate their money to my campaign. This way I will have to answer to them – not the special interests. One of the driving forces in my decision is knowing that in late August of 2004, the 527 Swift Boat Vets for Truth started running smears against John Kerry. Because of the broken system, Kerry was unable to respond because he was restricted by the campaign finance rules. While the GOP has numerous smear groups with endless cash from the oil companies, the democrats do not have a wealth of special interest money. By opting out of public financing, I will use the donations of the American people to fight these 527s without being restricted by the broken system in Washington. Once elected, we can begin making real change in our election policy by making it 100% publicly financed without loopholes for special interests.
You may call my actions a flip-flop… but let me ask Sen. McCain who the flip-flopper is: I didn't say in 2005 that I didn't want off-shore drilling for oil… then say in 2008 that I'm in support of it. I didn't vote against the Bush tax cuts in 2001 and 2003, and now support them. I didn't ask for the suspension of Habeas Corpus for Gitmo Detainees – knowing full well the importance of giving prisoners of war their due rights… then change my position 180 degrees when I was running for president. I didn't – in 2004 – say I refused to drill in ANWAR… then in 2008 say I'm willing to drill.
McCain may attack my substance… but it seems to me his substance is ever-changing.
This election is a choice between change you can believe in… and someone who likes changing his positions.
Thank you for your time,
Sen. Barack Obama
Friday, June 20, 2008
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
The Issues: Economy
Today, I'm starting a series of pieces breaking down the two presidential candidates on the issues. With each post, I will be linking the actual candidate page on the given issue - to assure my readers that I am accurately representing the candidate's views.
I'm open to questions on any of these issues - and will gladly provide posts giving you in depth information on anything you'd like to know more about.
Our First Issue: The Economy
Taxes:
John McCain Plan
McCain has been a constant defender against pork-barrel spending. In his economic plan, he claims he'll cut taxes by $500 billion over the next 5 years - mostly by expanding the 15% tax bracket to include more people in the middle class bracket.
He is in favor of the Bush tax cuts, given primarily to the top 2% of income earners in the country.
McCain has proposed a decrease in the Corporate tax, reducing it from 35% down to 25%. He also wants to improve business incentives by giving tax breaks for businesses which purchase new equipment.
McCain also wants to freeze the tax rates on dividends and capital gains at current rates: 15% - a number scaled back since the Clinton Administration
His plan would Ban new taxes on cell phones, and ban any tax on Internet businesses.
McCain wants to double the personal exemption for dependents - from $3500 to $7K.
Finally, McCain wants to make it more difficult to raise taxes, requiring a 3/5 majority vote in the congress to pass any increase.
Barack Obama's Plan Outline, Full Plan
Obama has said what's vital to his economic plan is rolling back the Bush tax cuts that were passed for the top 2% of income earners in the country.
His plan includes a $1000 income tax credit for working families and a $500 dollar income tax credit for per person. This would affect 150 million lower/middle class workers - and essentially eliminate an income tax for 10 million low income Americans.
Obama favors lifting the cap on the capital gains tax from 15% to as high as 28% (levels during the Clinton Administration).
His job stimulus plan includes tax breaks for clean technologies, tax breaks and loan guarantees for job training and education - specifically designed for green technologies.
Obama plans to implement a Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) - requiring 25% of electricity be derived from renewable sources by 2025, and the hope is this will spur job growth in the renewable energy field.
He also wants to make trade fair by revisiting NAFTA and changing our trade policy to ensure American workers aren't having their jobs sent overseas.
Gas Policy
John McCain
McCain has supported a Gas Tax Holiday for the summer months when gas prices tend to sky-rocket. This would remove the 18.4 cents/gallon tax all Americans pay from Memorial Day to Labor Day. Most economists say this will have little effect on the price of gas, as it will likely be passed on to the consumer. If it doesn't, it will save Americans about a half a tank of gas during the course of the summer.
McCain supports off-shore drilling, which could possibly reduce the price of gas after a ten year period of research and excavation. He suggests using all forms of alternative energy - including nuclear - to solve our energy crisis.
McCain also supports the suspension of filling up our Strategic Petroleum Reserve. This, according to McCain, would reduce the demand for oil - lowering costs.
Barack Obama
Obama does not support s Gas Tax Holiday, but does support a "windfall profits tax" on oil companies who have carried record profits in the last several quarters. He wants to use that money to go towards alternative energy research and development as part of his economic stimulus plan.
Obama is against off-shore drilling, saying that we should focus our money and energy on renewable fuels. The reasoning is that since oil exploration would take 10 years - why not use those ten years and created a new, renewable form of energy.
Obama has also said he supports another economic stimulus payment on the heels of the spike in gas prices.
Mortgage Crisis
Both McCain and Obama support a crackdown on predatory lending and have called for plans to make it easier for homeowners to avoid foreclosure.
Both call for help form the Justice Department in ending this practice.
Obama's plan calls for a more proactive approach, requiring lenders to provide more information to lendees, and closes bankruptcy loopholes for mortgage companies.
Hope Part 1 is useful and objective... please note, the information I ma using is strictly from John McCain and Barack Obama's Websites (which there is a vast difference in the level of information on each site.... see for yourself) as well as press releases from both of the campaigns.
Please feel free to submit any questions!
I'm open to questions on any of these issues - and will gladly provide posts giving you in depth information on anything you'd like to know more about.
Our First Issue: The Economy
Taxes:
John McCain Plan
McCain has been a constant defender against pork-barrel spending. In his economic plan, he claims he'll cut taxes by $500 billion over the next 5 years - mostly by expanding the 15% tax bracket to include more people in the middle class bracket.
He is in favor of the Bush tax cuts, given primarily to the top 2% of income earners in the country.
McCain has proposed a decrease in the Corporate tax, reducing it from 35% down to 25%. He also wants to improve business incentives by giving tax breaks for businesses which purchase new equipment.
McCain also wants to freeze the tax rates on dividends and capital gains at current rates: 15% - a number scaled back since the Clinton Administration
His plan would Ban new taxes on cell phones, and ban any tax on Internet businesses.
McCain wants to double the personal exemption for dependents - from $3500 to $7K.
Finally, McCain wants to make it more difficult to raise taxes, requiring a 3/5 majority vote in the congress to pass any increase.
Barack Obama's Plan Outline, Full Plan
Obama has said what's vital to his economic plan is rolling back the Bush tax cuts that were passed for the top 2% of income earners in the country.
His plan includes a $1000 income tax credit for working families and a $500 dollar income tax credit for per person. This would affect 150 million lower/middle class workers - and essentially eliminate an income tax for 10 million low income Americans.
Obama favors lifting the cap on the capital gains tax from 15% to as high as 28% (levels during the Clinton Administration).
His job stimulus plan includes tax breaks for clean technologies, tax breaks and loan guarantees for job training and education - specifically designed for green technologies.
Obama plans to implement a Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) - requiring 25% of electricity be derived from renewable sources by 2025, and the hope is this will spur job growth in the renewable energy field.
He also wants to make trade fair by revisiting NAFTA and changing our trade policy to ensure American workers aren't having their jobs sent overseas.
Gas Policy
John McCain
McCain has supported a Gas Tax Holiday for the summer months when gas prices tend to sky-rocket. This would remove the 18.4 cents/gallon tax all Americans pay from Memorial Day to Labor Day. Most economists say this will have little effect on the price of gas, as it will likely be passed on to the consumer. If it doesn't, it will save Americans about a half a tank of gas during the course of the summer.
McCain supports off-shore drilling, which could possibly reduce the price of gas after a ten year period of research and excavation. He suggests using all forms of alternative energy - including nuclear - to solve our energy crisis.
McCain also supports the suspension of filling up our Strategic Petroleum Reserve. This, according to McCain, would reduce the demand for oil - lowering costs.
Barack Obama
Obama does not support s Gas Tax Holiday, but does support a "windfall profits tax" on oil companies who have carried record profits in the last several quarters. He wants to use that money to go towards alternative energy research and development as part of his economic stimulus plan.
Obama is against off-shore drilling, saying that we should focus our money and energy on renewable fuels. The reasoning is that since oil exploration would take 10 years - why not use those ten years and created a new, renewable form of energy.
Obama has also said he supports another economic stimulus payment on the heels of the spike in gas prices.
Mortgage Crisis
Both McCain and Obama support a crackdown on predatory lending and have called for plans to make it easier for homeowners to avoid foreclosure.
Both call for help form the Justice Department in ending this practice.
Obama's plan calls for a more proactive approach, requiring lenders to provide more information to lendees, and closes bankruptcy loopholes for mortgage companies.
Hope Part 1 is useful and objective... please note, the information I ma using is strictly from John McCain and Barack Obama's Websites (which there is a vast difference in the level of information on each site.... see for yourself) as well as press releases from both of the campaigns.
Please feel free to submit any questions!
Monday, June 16, 2008
Remembering Russert
It is with great sadness that I have to make this post: Tim Russert - host of NBC's "Meet The Press" - passed away due to heart failure on Friday.
I idolized Tim Russert - and like most American's - I saw him as a piller of political knowledge. If Tim said it - you knew it was legit.
Perhaps his most memorable moment came in the 2000 election between George Bush and Al Gore. The electoral vote was swaying back and forth between Gore and Bush, and the high tech graphics at NBC News couldn't keep up. That's where Tim came in: a throwback to a white board - breaking down the raw numbers with a marker so that everyone watching could understand. (The clip is at about 2:45):
We'll miss you Tim...
I idolized Tim Russert - and like most American's - I saw him as a piller of political knowledge. If Tim said it - you knew it was legit.
Perhaps his most memorable moment came in the 2000 election between George Bush and Al Gore. The electoral vote was swaying back and forth between Gore and Bush, and the high tech graphics at NBC News couldn't keep up. That's where Tim came in: a throwback to a white board - breaking down the raw numbers with a marker so that everyone watching could understand. (The clip is at about 2:45):
We'll miss you Tim...
Obama on Fathers
The crux of the speech, in which Obama calls on fathers to be more responsible in our society:
"[If] we are honest with ourselves, we’ll admit that what too many fathers also are is missing — missing from too many lives and too many homes. They have abandoned their responsibilities, acting like boys instead of men. And the foundations of our families are weaker because of it.
You and I know how true this is in the African-American community. We know that more than half of all black children live in single-parent households, a number that has doubled — doubled — since we were children. We know the statistics — that children who grow up without a father are five times more likely to live in poverty and commit crime; nine times more likely to drop out of schools and twenty times more likely to end up in prison. They are more likely to have behavioral problems, or run away from home, or become teenage parents themselves. And the foundations of our community are weaker because of it.
How many times in the last year has this city lost a child at the hands of another child? How many times have our hearts stopped in the middle of the night with the sound of a gunshot or a siren? How many teenagers have we seen hanging around on street corners when they should be sitting in a classroom? How many are sitting in prison when they should be working, or at least looking for a job? How many in this generation are we willing to lose to poverty or violence or addiction? How many?
Yes, we need more cops on the street. Yes, we need fewer guns in the hands of people who shouldn’t have them. Yes, we need more money for our schools, and more outstanding teachers in the classroom, and more afterschool programs for our children. Yes, we need more jobs and more job training and more opportunity in our communities.
But we also need families to raise our children. We need fathers to realize that responsibility does not end at conception. We need them to realize that what makes you a man is not the ability to have a child — it’s the courage to raise one.
We need to help all the mothers out there who are raising these kids by themselves; the mothers who drop them off at school, go to work, pick up them up in the afternoon, work another shift, get dinner, make lunches, pay the bills, fix the house, and all the other things it takes both parents to do. So many of these women are doing a heroic job, but they need support. They need another parent. Their children need another parent. That’s what keeps their foundation strong. It’s what keeps the foundation of our country strong."
Friday, June 6, 2008
John McCain
Someone challenged me to break down three positive things about John McCain. Apparently he thought I might be a bit biased... but without further adui:
1. I believe John McCain to be a genuine person who actually thinks through legislation. He's worried about how it effects the population as opposed to how it might affect his voting record.*
2. John McCain 'gets' that global warming is happening and that something needs to be done about it. He's not blind to the science out there and virtually every respected scientist who says global warming is real and that we need to do something about it. He also understands how this is coupled with getting off a dependency on foreign oil.
3. John McCain is a hero who loves his country. The man spent 6 years in a Vietnamese prison. How can you not respect that?
*This is obviously pre-2004. Since that year, he has voted in lock-step with the Bush administration, and has even changed some of his positions.
Thursday, June 5, 2008
The Electoral Map
The Obama campaign sends out an e-mail to the press saying the Republicans won't be able to count on as many states this year, and that the entire electoral map will change. During the Bush/Gore and Bush/Kerry years, the map looked very similar to the one below. This year, however, states like Virginia, Indiana, Colorado and New Mexico are up for grabs.
This map gives you a glimpse into how the electroal math is shaping up for the 2008 election. It can be found at www.electoral-vote.com
This map gives you a glimpse into how the electroal math is shaping up for the 2008 election. It can be found at www.electoral-vote.com
Wednesday, June 4, 2008
The Nomination
On June 3rd, 2008, Barack Obama overcame tremendous odds to become the first minority to represent a major political party in a U.S. Presidential Election. I don't care what party you are in, who you support, or what your political beliefs are; but this nomination was of historic proportions.
I was in the Xcel Energy Center in St. Paul, MN - and it was truly electric. There was something special that was happening as Barack Obama said, "I will be the Democratic nominee for the President of the United States of America" - you felt something.
This was Martin Luther King's Dream. This was why Rosa Parks stayed on the bus. This was why thousands marched the streets in Selma, and why others died at Gettysburg.
So much in our history is riddled with remorse and regret for how we've treated our own. And so much work has been down to overcome those past failures. But tonight - in one shinning moment - there was an accomplishment that made all the struggle, the tears, and the strife seem somewhat worthwhile.
There is an African-American running as the nominee for President. Sure, there is a long way to go - but it certainly has given us a new hope in seeing just how far we have come.
The moment:
I was in the Xcel Energy Center in St. Paul, MN - and it was truly electric. There was something special that was happening as Barack Obama said, "I will be the Democratic nominee for the President of the United States of America" - you felt something.
This was Martin Luther King's Dream. This was why Rosa Parks stayed on the bus. This was why thousands marched the streets in Selma, and why others died at Gettysburg.
So much in our history is riddled with remorse and regret for how we've treated our own. And so much work has been down to overcome those past failures. But tonight - in one shinning moment - there was an accomplishment that made all the struggle, the tears, and the strife seem somewhat worthwhile.
There is an African-American running as the nominee for President. Sure, there is a long way to go - but it certainly has given us a new hope in seeing just how far we have come.
The moment:
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
The Math: Popular Vote
You've heard Hillary Clinton say "We have won the popular vote". That will be her campaign's arguement for why she deserves the nomination in Denver this August.
But there is a lot Clinton is not telling you with that statement.
In one sense, yes, Clinton has the popular vote. If you add up all the votes in the primary states - including Florida and Michigan - and all the caucus states that release their popular vote numbers, Hillary has a slight lead - about 164 thousand votes.
But there are three problems here: 1. Barack Obama was not on the Michigan ballot because according to the DNC rules, any state that moved it's primary ahead of Super Tuesday would be striped of it's delegates - rendering it's vote meaningless. So, Hillary technically won Michigan - but Obama wasn't on the ballot due to the rules. So counting Michigan in the popular vote is a bit of a stretch.
2. Both Florida and Michigan are not supposed to count. Like we stated above - these two states moved their primaries ahead of Super Tuesday, and therefore - according to the rules- neither votes should count. In fact all the candidates pledged not to campaign in Florida, and all but Hillary took their name off the Michigan ballot.
3. The Clinton ocunt of hte Popular Vote does not include the popular vote for caucus states that don't release official popular vote totals. For instance, Obama had more voters in Iowa - but all Iowa counts is the number of delegates the candidate gets at the end of the day (which is essentially a percentage of the number of votes that candidate got).
So, if you include Michiagn and Florida, and NOT include states like Iowa and Washington (another caucus state) - Clinton has the 164,000 vote lead.
However, if you take away Michigan, and include the Caucus state estimates, Obama leads by 274,000 votes.
If you simply give Obama the 'Unidecided' vote from the Michigan election - according to Clinton's Math - Obama still wins by 174,000 votes.
But there is a lot Clinton is not telling you with that statement.
In one sense, yes, Clinton has the popular vote. If you add up all the votes in the primary states - including Florida and Michigan - and all the caucus states that release their popular vote numbers, Hillary has a slight lead - about 164 thousand votes.
But there are three problems here: 1. Barack Obama was not on the Michigan ballot because according to the DNC rules, any state that moved it's primary ahead of Super Tuesday would be striped of it's delegates - rendering it's vote meaningless. So, Hillary technically won Michigan - but Obama wasn't on the ballot due to the rules. So counting Michigan in the popular vote is a bit of a stretch.
2. Both Florida and Michigan are not supposed to count. Like we stated above - these two states moved their primaries ahead of Super Tuesday, and therefore - according to the rules- neither votes should count. In fact all the candidates pledged not to campaign in Florida, and all but Hillary took their name off the Michigan ballot.
3. The Clinton ocunt of hte Popular Vote does not include the popular vote for caucus states that don't release official popular vote totals. For instance, Obama had more voters in Iowa - but all Iowa counts is the number of delegates the candidate gets at the end of the day (which is essentially a percentage of the number of votes that candidate got).
So, if you include Michiagn and Florida, and NOT include states like Iowa and Washington (another caucus state) - Clinton has the 164,000 vote lead.
However, if you take away Michigan, and include the Caucus state estimates, Obama leads by 274,000 votes.
If you simply give Obama the 'Unidecided' vote from the Michigan election - according to Clinton's Math - Obama still wins by 174,000 votes.
State of the Race: May 31st
It all comes down to May 31st.
Okay - so I think there have been about 18 "It all comes down to ... [insert date here]" moments in the 2008 Democratic campaign for the presidential nomination, but ultimately, May 31st will hold some very important answers.
On this particular Saturday, the Democratic Rules and Bylaws committee will meet to decide what they will do with the votes in Michigan and Florida. Why not just count the votes? The problem is these two states broke the Democratic primary rules and moved their primaries ahead of super tuesday without permission from the DNC.
All the candidates pledged not to campaign in Florida, and all but Hillary took their name off the Michigan ballot. The states still held their votes, but the results arguably don't represent the will of the people.
In Michigan, Hillary got about 60% of the vote as the only democrat on the ticket - and "uncommitted" came in at about 40%. The argument Hillary is making is that those votes should be counted - and she should get 60% of the delegates in Michgan. The Obama people say "Wait a minute, we didn't even have our name on the ballot because the rules stated that if Michigan moved their primary - their delegates wouldn't count." So if Obama didn't run in Michigan, and the delegates are counted - it would be an unfair advantage to Hillary. So that's headache number 1.
In Florida, Hillary won as well. There seems to be less concern over what to do with these delegates - as both Hillary and Obama had their names on the ballot. Hillary won by about half a million votes, and would likely get a large portion of the Florida Delegates.
Either way - how the rules and by-law committee handles these two states and their delegates could be crucial in how the 2008 Deomcratic nomination ends up.
Okay - so I think there have been about 18 "It all comes down to ... [insert date here]" moments in the 2008 Democratic campaign for the presidential nomination, but ultimately, May 31st will hold some very important answers.
On this particular Saturday, the Democratic Rules and Bylaws committee will meet to decide what they will do with the votes in Michigan and Florida. Why not just count the votes? The problem is these two states broke the Democratic primary rules and moved their primaries ahead of super tuesday without permission from the DNC.
All the candidates pledged not to campaign in Florida, and all but Hillary took their name off the Michigan ballot. The states still held their votes, but the results arguably don't represent the will of the people.
In Michigan, Hillary got about 60% of the vote as the only democrat on the ticket - and "uncommitted" came in at about 40%. The argument Hillary is making is that those votes should be counted - and she should get 60% of the delegates in Michgan. The Obama people say "Wait a minute, we didn't even have our name on the ballot because the rules stated that if Michigan moved their primary - their delegates wouldn't count." So if Obama didn't run in Michigan, and the delegates are counted - it would be an unfair advantage to Hillary. So that's headache number 1.
In Florida, Hillary won as well. There seems to be less concern over what to do with these delegates - as both Hillary and Obama had their names on the ballot. Hillary won by about half a million votes, and would likely get a large portion of the Florida Delegates.
Either way - how the rules and by-law committee handles these two states and their delegates could be crucial in how the 2008 Deomcratic nomination ends up.
Saturday, May 3, 2008
Thursday, April 24, 2008
Why Indiana Matters
You could call it a tie-breaker.
After Hillary won PA, she has a new - though small - lease on life. She's proven that she has a good hold on the white, working class voters, and dominated in rural Pennsylvania.
Now the campaigns move on to Indiana, where it is a must win for Clinton. Clinton has moved closer to Obama's lead, but remains a long way off - in fact it's almost impossible for her to catch up (see The Math, below).
But Indiana will be a test. If Clinton performs well, she has more ammunition to attract the super delegates to her camp. If Obama wins, he has the better hand, and will likely force Hillary to drop out (however, my guess is Hillary will run until 2012 without stopping - regardless of the numbers).
Both Indiana and North Carolina will vote on May 6th. Obama is expected to win NC - and a landslide win could be a deal breaker. However, if Clinton is able to keep it close in NC AND win Indiana, she'll hold onto that life-vest a little bit longer.
So - Indiana - of all places - could potentially decide who will be the democratic nominee.
Cross your fingers this thing will finally end... but don't hold your breath.
After Hillary won PA, she has a new - though small - lease on life. She's proven that she has a good hold on the white, working class voters, and dominated in rural Pennsylvania.
Now the campaigns move on to Indiana, where it is a must win for Clinton. Clinton has moved closer to Obama's lead, but remains a long way off - in fact it's almost impossible for her to catch up (see The Math, below).
But Indiana will be a test. If Clinton performs well, she has more ammunition to attract the super delegates to her camp. If Obama wins, he has the better hand, and will likely force Hillary to drop out (however, my guess is Hillary will run until 2012 without stopping - regardless of the numbers).
Both Indiana and North Carolina will vote on May 6th. Obama is expected to win NC - and a landslide win could be a deal breaker. However, if Clinton is able to keep it close in NC AND win Indiana, she'll hold onto that life-vest a little bit longer.
So - Indiana - of all places - could potentially decide who will be the democratic nominee.
Cross your fingers this thing will finally end... but don't hold your breath.
The Math
Here is how the delegate math breaks down post Pennsylvania:
With a net gain of approximately 12 pledged delegates from PA (after winning by 9%),
Clinton has pulled within 154.
Clinton 1335
Obama 1489
There are 9 contests with 408 pledged delegates remaining. In order to have a majority of the pledged delegates, either candidate must get 1627.
Leaving Obama with 138 delegates needed, and Clinton with 273 delegates needed.
Since Democratic delegates are given out proportionally, Obama only needs to win about 34% of the remaining votes. Clinton, on the other hand, needs to about 67% of the vote.
That is virtually statistically impossible.
So, what's the next measure: Total delegates.
Including Super Delegates, either candidate needs to get 2025 total delegates to win the nomination. Clinton currently leads among supers, 256-234. That 22 point margin was much larger a few weeks ago, but Obama has closed the gap.
So Obama leads in total delegates 1723 to 1591.
Assuming neither candidate gets a swell of Super delegate endorsements in the next few weeks, Clinton again would need about 65% of the vote in the remaining contests to pull close to Obama in the total delegate count.
Finally, we have the overall popular vote:
Obama 14,417,619 (49.2%)
Clinton 13,917,009 (47.5%)
But if you count Florida, where none of the candidates campaigned (b/c FL broke the rules, moved their primary up, and were punished by the Democratic Party - and consequently, all teh candidates SAID they would not campaign there) but Hillary attended for a victory party:
Obama 14,993,833 (48.3%)
Clinton 14,787,995 (47.6%)
This makes Indiana extremely vital.
With a net gain of approximately 12 pledged delegates from PA (after winning by 9%),
Clinton has pulled within 154.
Clinton 1335
Obama 1489
There are 9 contests with 408 pledged delegates remaining. In order to have a majority of the pledged delegates, either candidate must get 1627.
Leaving Obama with 138 delegates needed, and Clinton with 273 delegates needed.
Since Democratic delegates are given out proportionally, Obama only needs to win about 34% of the remaining votes. Clinton, on the other hand, needs to about 67% of the vote.
That is virtually statistically impossible.
So, what's the next measure: Total delegates.
Including Super Delegates, either candidate needs to get 2025 total delegates to win the nomination. Clinton currently leads among supers, 256-234. That 22 point margin was much larger a few weeks ago, but Obama has closed the gap.
So Obama leads in total delegates 1723 to 1591.
Assuming neither candidate gets a swell of Super delegate endorsements in the next few weeks, Clinton again would need about 65% of the vote in the remaining contests to pull close to Obama in the total delegate count.
Finally, we have the overall popular vote:
Obama 14,417,619 (49.2%)
Clinton 13,917,009 (47.5%)
But if you count Florida, where none of the candidates campaigned (b/c FL broke the rules, moved their primary up, and were punished by the Democratic Party - and consequently, all teh candidates SAID they would not campaign there) but Hillary attended for a victory party:
Obama 14,993,833 (48.3%)
Clinton 14,787,995 (47.6%)
This makes Indiana extremely vital.
"IF-YOU to the process"
Now that Clinton has won Pennsylvania, she's going to stay in the race, and continues to make an arguement as to why she should win and Superdelegates should support here.
Jon Steewart had a fairly humorous take on Hillary's changing arguements for why she should win:
Jon Steewart had a fairly humorous take on Hillary's changing arguements for why she should win:
Thursday, March 13, 2008
Back From Phoenix
I recently got a little R and R in Phoenix... caught some sun, a little spring training baseball, a little golf, and got engaged!
Anway - I came back to find one of my stories being used in a political race for office:
Anway - I came back to find one of my stories being used in a political race for office:
Sunday, March 2, 2008
Worlds Collide
It's March - and for anyone that knows me - that means Basketball. But this year, it also means Politics. So - for the next couple of weeks, this blog will be a Hybrid: Basketball and Politics.
And without further ado... what's on Tap for Basketball this week:
3 Conferences start their conference tournaments Tuesday the 4th:
Ohio Valley:
#1 Austin Peay
vs.
#8 Eastern Kentucky
#4 UT Martin
vs.
#5 Samford
#2 Murray State
vs.
#7 Tennessee Tech
#3 Morehead State
vs.
#6 Tennessee State
Big South
#1 UNC Ashville
vs.
#8 Charleston Southern
#4 Liberty
vs.
#5 VMI
#2 Winthrop
vs.
#7 Radford
#3 High Point
vs.
#6 Coastal Carolina
Horizon League
#3 Wright State
vs.
#10 Detroit
#6 Valpo
vs.
#7 Green Bay
#4 UIC
vs.
#9 Youngstown State
#5 Milwaukee
vs.
#8 Loyola
(#1 Butler and #2 Cleveland State have byes)
And without further ado... what's on Tap for Basketball this week:
3 Conferences start their conference tournaments Tuesday the 4th:
Ohio Valley:
#1 Austin Peay
vs.
#8 Eastern Kentucky
#4 UT Martin
vs.
#5 Samford
#2 Murray State
vs.
#7 Tennessee Tech
#3 Morehead State
vs.
#6 Tennessee State
Big South
#1 UNC Ashville
vs.
#8 Charleston Southern
#4 Liberty
vs.
#5 VMI
#2 Winthrop
vs.
#7 Radford
#3 High Point
vs.
#6 Coastal Carolina
Horizon League
#3 Wright State
vs.
#10 Detroit
#6 Valpo
vs.
#7 Green Bay
#4 UIC
vs.
#9 Youngstown State
#5 Milwaukee
vs.
#8 Loyola
(#1 Butler and #2 Cleveland State have byes)
Friday, February 29, 2008
Obama's Response
Obama's campaign responded to Hillary's campaign attacks today, after Clinton Campaign press person Howard Wolfson said that Obama was insulting the American public by calling Clinton's Ad (see below) "fearmongering". (In the ad, the voice over says that it's 3 am and there's a phone in the white house ringing - who do you want to answer it?).
When asked if Clinton should drop out of the race after the Texas and Ohio Primaries, an Obama spokesperson said "I would encourage you on March 5 to call Sen. Clinton at 3 a.m. and ask that question"
For Obama's Part, he's released this ad:
When asked if Clinton should drop out of the race after the Texas and Ohio Primaries, an Obama spokesperson said "I would encourage you on March 5 to call Sen. Clinton at 3 a.m. and ask that question"
For Obama's Part, he's released this ad:
Clinton's New Ad
Clinton has a new ad out that is similar to a "Who's going to pick up the Red Phone" ad used by Walter Mondale in 1984 when a surging Gary Hart almost knocked off Mondale's 'inevitable" campaign... hmmm... gee, I don't see any similarities to the current campaign...
Monday, February 25, 2008
Missing His Time
John Edwards missed the mark.
The former presidential candidate has waited to endorse either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama for the Democratic nomination, leaving his endorsement effectively null and void.
Here's my reasoning:
Had Edwards made a committment to one candidate or the other prior to Super Tuesday - or even last week - he would've had time to get out and rally his supporters for the candidate of his choice. Now, it's too late to campaign, and if Obama wins either Texas or Ohio, the race is effectively over. If Hillary wins both, and then Edwards endorses Hillary, it's likely too little too late baring a miracle.
He may have strong feelings towards the war or poverty - but I believe this is a man who's more interested in hedging his bets than helping the poor - much less a candidate win the nomination.
Friday, February 22, 2008
"Change you can Xerox"...
In the debate between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama on Thursday - there were a couple of telling moments:
1. Obama responds to allegations that he is all style- and no substance:
"OBAMA: Senator Clinton of late has said: Let's get real. The implication is that the people who've been voting for me or involved in my campaign are somehow delusional.
(LAUGHTER)
And that, you know, the 20 million people who've been paying attention to 19 debates and the editorial boards all across the country at newspapers who have given me endorsements, including every major newspaper here in the state of Texas.
(APPLAUSE)
You know, the thinking is that somehow, they're being duped, and eventually they're going to see the reality of things.
Well, I think they perceive reality of what's going on in Washington very clearly. What they see is that if we don't bring the country together, stop the endless bickering, actually focus on solutions and reduce the special interests that have dominated Washington, then we will not get anything done. And the reason that this campaign has done so well...
(APPLAUSE)
The reason that this campaign has done so well is because people understand that it is not just a matter of putting forward policy positions.
Senator Clinton and I share a lot of policy positions. But if we can't inspire the American people to get involved in their government and if we can't inspire them to go beyond the racial divisions and the religious divisions and the regional divisions that have plagued our politics for so long, then we will continue to see the kind of gridlock and nonperformance in Washington that is resulting in families suffering in very real ways.
I'm running for president to start doing something about that suffering, and so are the people who are behind my campaign."
(LAUGHTER)
And that, you know, the 20 million people who've been paying attention to 19 debates and the editorial boards all across the country at newspapers who have given me endorsements, including every major newspaper here in the state of Texas.
(APPLAUSE)
You know, the thinking is that somehow, they're being duped, and eventually they're going to see the reality of things.
Well, I think they perceive reality of what's going on in Washington very clearly. What they see is that if we don't bring the country together, stop the endless bickering, actually focus on solutions and reduce the special interests that have dominated Washington, then we will not get anything done. And the reason that this campaign has done so well...
(APPLAUSE)
The reason that this campaign has done so well is because people understand that it is not just a matter of putting forward policy positions.
Senator Clinton and I share a lot of policy positions. But if we can't inspire the American people to get involved in their government and if we can't inspire them to go beyond the racial divisions and the religious divisions and the regional divisions that have plagued our politics for so long, then we will continue to see the kind of gridlock and nonperformance in Washington that is resulting in families suffering in very real ways.
I'm running for president to start doing something about that suffering, and so are the people who are behind my campaign."
2. Obama responds to charges that he "plagiarized"
OBAMA: Well, look, the -- first of all, it's not a lot of speeches. There are two lines in speeches that I've been giving over the last couple of weeks.
I've been campaigning now for the last two years. Deval is a national co-chairman of my campaign, and suggested an argument that I share, that words are important. Words matter. And the implication that they don't I think diminishes how important it is to speak to the American people directly about making America as good as its promise. Barbara Jordan understood this as well as anybody.
OBAMA: And the notion that I had plagiarized from somebody who was one of my national co-chairs...
(APPLAUSE)
... who gave me the line and suggested that I use it, I think, is silly, and...
(APPLAUSE)
... you know, this is where we start getting into silly season, in politics, and I think people start getting discouraged about it...
(LAUGHTER)
... and they don't want...
(APPLAUSE)
What they want is, how are we going to create good jobs and good wages?
How are we going to provide health care to the American people?
How are we going to make sure that college is affordable?
So what I've been talking about, in this speeches -- and I've got to admit, some of them are pretty good.
(APPLAUSE)
What I've been talking about is not just hope and not just inspiration. It's a $4,000 tuition credit for every student, every year, in exchange for national service...
(APPLAUSE)
... so that college becomes more affordable.
OBAMA: I've been talking about making sure that we change our tax code so that working families actually get relief. I have been talking about making sure that we bring an end to this war in Iraq so that we can start bringing our troops home and invest money here in the United States.
(APPLAUSE)
So just to finish up, these are very specific, concrete, detailed proposals, many of them which I have been working on for years now. Senator Clinton has a fine record. So do I. I'm happy to have a debate on the issues, but what we shouldn't be spending time doing is tearing each other down. We should be spending time lifting the country up.
(APPLAUSE)
BROWN: Senator Clinton, is it the silly season?
CLINTON: Well, I think that if your candidacy is going to be about words, then they should be your own words. That's, I think, a very simple proposition.
(APPLAUSE)
And, you know, lifting whole passages from someone else's speeches is not change you can believe in, it's change you can Xerox. And I just don't think...
OBAMA: Come on.
I've been campaigning now for the last two years. Deval is a national co-chairman of my campaign, and suggested an argument that I share, that words are important. Words matter. And the implication that they don't I think diminishes how important it is to speak to the American people directly about making America as good as its promise. Barbara Jordan understood this as well as anybody.
OBAMA: And the notion that I had plagiarized from somebody who was one of my national co-chairs...
(APPLAUSE)
... who gave me the line and suggested that I use it, I think, is silly, and...
(APPLAUSE)
... you know, this is where we start getting into silly season, in politics, and I think people start getting discouraged about it...
(LAUGHTER)
... and they don't want...
(APPLAUSE)
What they want is, how are we going to create good jobs and good wages?
How are we going to provide health care to the American people?
How are we going to make sure that college is affordable?
So what I've been talking about, in this speeches -- and I've got to admit, some of them are pretty good.
(APPLAUSE)
What I've been talking about is not just hope and not just inspiration. It's a $4,000 tuition credit for every student, every year, in exchange for national service...
(APPLAUSE)
... so that college becomes more affordable.
OBAMA: I've been talking about making sure that we change our tax code so that working families actually get relief. I have been talking about making sure that we bring an end to this war in Iraq so that we can start bringing our troops home and invest money here in the United States.
(APPLAUSE)
So just to finish up, these are very specific, concrete, detailed proposals, many of them which I have been working on for years now. Senator Clinton has a fine record. So do I. I'm happy to have a debate on the issues, but what we shouldn't be spending time doing is tearing each other down. We should be spending time lifting the country up.
(APPLAUSE)
BROWN: Senator Clinton, is it the silly season?
CLINTON: Well, I think that if your candidacy is going to be about words, then they should be your own words. That's, I think, a very simple proposition.
(APPLAUSE)
And, you know, lifting whole passages from someone else's speeches is not change you can believe in, it's change you can Xerox. And I just don't think...
OBAMA: Come on.
Thursday, February 21, 2008
McCain Blasts New York Times for Story
Why is McCain so mad? Well, you'd be mad too if the New York Times published a story that questions not only your integrity as an honest lawmaker, but also gives some credence to rumors that he may have had innappropriate relations with a telecom lobbiest.
In the article, the NYT write that some staffers of McCains where trying to "save him from himself" by keeping this lobbiest away from him, and him away from her.
Both McCain and the Lobbiest - 30 years his younger - deny any relationship, which is alleged to have happened about 8 years ago.
Rumble In Austin?
It COULD be a a hell of a fight in Austin as Clinton and Obama square off in their second head-to-head debate at 7 tonight.
The thing to watch: How hard will Hilalry try to punch?
Hillary needs a game-changer, and the debate format is her home court. But she has to be careful not to turn people off by attacking a very popular candidate.
Should be interesting... then again, we thought the last one would be knock-down-drag-out... and it turned into a love-fest.
"Cold, Calculated Violation Of The Law"
Those were the words of a Obama spokesperson describing how a Clinton 527 going up in Texas and Ohio could land some donors, and possibly the campaign in some hot legal trouble... More to come on this...
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Cheeseheads To Obama
Currently, Obama has 56% of the vote to 43% for Clinton with about 70% of the precincts reporting.
This is Big.
Why?
Obama has expanded his delegate lead - by a significant margin. He gains another 8-9 Delegates, meaning Clinton will have to win Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania by and average of about 65% to pull back ahead.
Another interesting 'inside politics' note:
Obama was schedule to speak to a Houston Audience at 8:30 central time. Clinton - who was going to speak at another time, moved her speech to about 8:20 central time. Clinton refuses to acknowledge the vote in Wisconsin and goes on to bash Obama in an appearent attempt to upstage him.
But Obama then - despite typical protocol to wait until your opponent speech is over - went on with his speech as scheduled. All the networks cut from Clinton and go to Obama. THEN, the talking point that "Obama upstaged Clinton" gets circulated... gotta love dirty politics, huh?
This is Big.
Why?
Obama has expanded his delegate lead - by a significant margin. He gains another 8-9 Delegates, meaning Clinton will have to win Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania by and average of about 65% to pull back ahead.
Another interesting 'inside politics' note:
Obama was schedule to speak to a Houston Audience at 8:30 central time. Clinton - who was going to speak at another time, moved her speech to about 8:20 central time. Clinton refuses to acknowledge the vote in Wisconsin and goes on to bash Obama in an appearent attempt to upstage him.
But Obama then - despite typical protocol to wait until your opponent speech is over - went on with his speech as scheduled. All the networks cut from Clinton and go to Obama. THEN, the talking point that "Obama upstaged Clinton" gets circulated... gotta love dirty politics, huh?
Plagarism?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8M6x1H08aFc
The Clinton campaign is slamming Barack Obama for Plagarism - taking some phrases from Deval Patrick's campaign speech when Patrick was running for Governor of Massechussetts.
Obama says he should have credited Deval. But, here's something you won't hear in the media reports:
#1 Patrick is friends with and supports Barack Obama
#2 Patrick's Campaign manager when he gave his "Just Words" speech: David Axelrod.
#3 Barack Obama's Campaign manager: David Axelrod.
This wasn't plagerism. This was a campaign using a similar line of defense when being attacked as being "without the beef". Axelrod is the one who coined it - and he's using it again with his Presidential candidate.
The Clinton campaign is slamming Barack Obama for Plagarism - taking some phrases from Deval Patrick's campaign speech when Patrick was running for Governor of Massechussetts.
Obama says he should have credited Deval. But, here's something you won't hear in the media reports:
#1 Patrick is friends with and supports Barack Obama
#2 Patrick's Campaign manager when he gave his "Just Words" speech: David Axelrod.
#3 Barack Obama's Campaign manager: David Axelrod.
This wasn't plagerism. This was a campaign using a similar line of defense when being attacked as being "without the beef". Axelrod is the one who coined it - and he's using it again with his Presidential candidate.
Friday, February 15, 2008
Gonzaga Representing At Sundance
Some love for a couple of guys I went to college with who are now working for NBC Universal - I think they put this together during the Writer's Strike:
http://www.youtube.com/user/BaratsAndBereta
Check out their other stuff too... it's pretty funny.
Completely Uncalled For, and Mother's Day are a couple of my favorites.
http://www.youtube.com/user/BaratsAndBereta
Check out their other stuff too... it's pretty funny.
Completely Uncalled For, and Mother's Day are a couple of my favorites.
Texas Firewall?
Remember how the Clinton Camp kept pointing to Texas and Ohio as the places they will make their big run towards the nomination, and that voters should just overlook the primaries in places like Virginia and Wisconsin?
Obama now leads Texas 48-42% over Clinton.
The most important figure:
Obama leads with Independents and Republicans 71-24%
However, in three other earlier polls, Clinton leads by an average of 10%
Obama now leads Texas 48-42% over Clinton.
The most important figure:
Obama leads with Independents and Republicans 71-24%
However, in three other earlier polls, Clinton leads by an average of 10%
Thursday, February 14, 2008
Debatable
So here's Hillary's Ad running in Wisconsin:
And the parody, which I find a bit amusing...
From ad:
"Both Candidates were invited to debate in Wisconsin. Hillary jumped on that like a UW freshman on a beer bong..."
And the parody, which I find a bit amusing...
From ad:
"Both Candidates were invited to debate in Wisconsin. Hillary jumped on that like a UW freshman on a beer bong..."
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
Edwards Endorsement Sweepstakes
One of the big question marks (outside of who will win) in the Democratic Nomination process is who John Edwards will endorse.
A recent ABC article suggests he may be leaning toward Clinton. This woudl certainly give Hilalry a must needed boost after 8 straight primary and caucus losses.
I can't say I could see Edwards endorsing Clinton. And if he does, I'm afraid it would be out of lust for power. He certainly has held out for a long time, giving me reason to believe he's trying to play his cards just right to land the best position possible in the adminstration of whoever wins the nomination. But given his populus message, he'd be eating his words to then endorse Clinton.
I'd much rather see him not endorse anyone, and leave me believing he's atelast partially true to his word and not a career politician.
A recent ABC article suggests he may be leaning toward Clinton. This woudl certainly give Hilalry a must needed boost after 8 straight primary and caucus losses.
I can't say I could see Edwards endorsing Clinton. And if he does, I'm afraid it would be out of lust for power. He certainly has held out for a long time, giving me reason to believe he's trying to play his cards just right to land the best position possible in the adminstration of whoever wins the nomination. But given his populus message, he'd be eating his words to then endorse Clinton.
I'd much rather see him not endorse anyone, and leave me believing he's atelast partially true to his word and not a career politician.
Land of Cheese In Play
I’ve said before that Wisconsin is a battleground in the Dem Primary – and it is now more than ever. But while the Clinton campaign will play it down (saying the real states that matter are TX, OH, PE, etc), they are furiously trying to get the vote in Wisconsin. Here’s the scenario:
Barack Obama will soon have a Delegate lead (even adding up to the Super Delegates, which he trails Hillary by about 80 - See Delegate 101 ). But in terms of pledged delegates and the popular vote, Obama is way out ahead. The argument is going to be made as we get closer to the election that whoever has more pledged delegates (these are the delegates people actually vote for) ought to get the support of the super Delegates, rather than the super delegates simply deciding against the will of the people and giving the nomination to the other candidate.
At this point, Obama leads in Pledged Delegates 1104-979. That’s a 125 delegate lead… and that’s huge. Hillary is trying to win big in Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. They have a combined pledged delegate total of 492. So right now, Clinton would have to win those three states by an average margin of 62% (309-183) in order to take back the pledged delegate lead. That’s tough by itself. But If Obama runs away with Wisconsin – say by winning 60% of their 74 pledged delegates – he’d increase that 125 delegate lead to 139. Then she’d need to take 66% of those three big states to take back the lead.
Fact is, Clinton NEEDS to perform well in Wisconsin. And despite her campaign saying only Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania matter – they are going balls to the wall in the Dairyland.
(Just watch how often Bill, Hill, and Chelsea parade through the state)…
Barack Obama will soon have a Delegate lead (even adding up to the Super Delegates, which he trails Hillary by about 80 - See Delegate 101 ). But in terms of pledged delegates and the popular vote, Obama is way out ahead. The argument is going to be made as we get closer to the election that whoever has more pledged delegates (these are the delegates people actually vote for) ought to get the support of the super Delegates, rather than the super delegates simply deciding against the will of the people and giving the nomination to the other candidate.
At this point, Obama leads in Pledged Delegates 1104-979. That’s a 125 delegate lead… and that’s huge. Hillary is trying to win big in Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. They have a combined pledged delegate total of 492. So right now, Clinton would have to win those three states by an average margin of 62% (309-183) in order to take back the pledged delegate lead. That’s tough by itself. But If Obama runs away with Wisconsin – say by winning 60% of their 74 pledged delegates – he’d increase that 125 delegate lead to 139. Then she’d need to take 66% of those three big states to take back the lead.
Fact is, Clinton NEEDS to perform well in Wisconsin. And despite her campaign saying only Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania matter – they are going balls to the wall in the Dairyland.
(Just watch how often Bill, Hill, and Chelsea parade through the state)…
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Why Huck Is Running?
Some theories, today, as to why Huckabee - who barely has a snowballs chance in hell of winning - is still running in the race.
It could be pretty simple: The two have run very cordial campaigns, no real fighting, not bashing each other. It ultimately could be good news for McCain that Huck is running. Why?
Imagine if Huck dropped out. McCain would have the nomination wrapped up for certain. But since Huck si in the race, the media actaully has to spent time covering McCain's wins. Instead of a media fre-for-all just covering the democratic race, they are forced to cover the republican (race - if you want to call it that) simply because there is a contender.
One last point: Huckabee would need 93% of the delegates from here on out in order to get the nomination. However, he just needs to make sure MCCain DOESN"T get something like 45% of the delegates remaining. If that happens, then it goes to the convention where it will be a free-for-all. So there si some logic to a Huckabee run beyond my own theory.
McCain, however, looks like he will roll in teh Potomac Primaries, effectiely ending Huck's Hopes.
It could be pretty simple: The two have run very cordial campaigns, no real fighting, not bashing each other. It ultimately could be good news for McCain that Huck is running. Why?
Imagine if Huck dropped out. McCain would have the nomination wrapped up for certain. But since Huck si in the race, the media actaully has to spent time covering McCain's wins. Instead of a media fre-for-all just covering the democratic race, they are forced to cover the republican (race - if you want to call it that) simply because there is a contender.One last point: Huckabee would need 93% of the delegates from here on out in order to get the nomination. However, he just needs to make sure MCCain DOESN"T get something like 45% of the delegates remaining. If that happens, then it goes to the convention where it will be a free-for-all. So there si some logic to a Huckabee run beyond my own theory.
McCain, however, looks like he will roll in teh Potomac Primaries, effectiely ending Huck's Hopes.
Tracking The Vote
There are a coupel of sites up giving us a little better perspective into who is really winning the race fro the presidency.
As I've written about before - Super Delegates vs. Pledged Delegates can really muddy up what is really happening.
So here are two sites:
Democratic Convention Watch helps you track who has endorsed whom.
Obama is Winning tracks how the Pledged Delegates actually have put Obama in the lead.
As I've written about before - Super Delegates vs. Pledged Delegates can really muddy up what is really happening.
So here are two sites:
Democratic Convention Watch helps you track who has endorsed whom.
Obama is Winning tracks how the Pledged Delegates actually have put Obama in the lead.
Monday, February 11, 2008
Potomac Primaries
After a slew of weekend contests won by Barack Obama, the two campaigns will go up against each other in the so-called "Potomac Primaries" which include Virginia, Maryland, and D.C.
While Obama is ahead in the polls in all three contests, Clinton needs a strong showing - if not a win - in Virginia. Basically, she needs to stop the bleeding after 5 straight losses since super tuesday (losing each by 19 points or more), and the chance of losing 10 straight (including Hawaii and Wisconsin next week) before the Texas and Ohio Primaries in early March.
McCain could put the nail in the coffin of rival Mike Huckabee, who is hanging on by a thread on the republican side. He is pulling the socially conservatice and anti-McCain vote, hoping to win enough delegates to keep MCCain from running up the 1191 necessary for the nomination.
The Huck is still alive, barely
Mike Huckabee pulle dout a coupel of impressive wins this past weekend winning both Kansas and Louisiana (they are also contesting Washington State, where McCain was declared the winner by about 200 votes with a couple of thosuand left to count).
The wins show he still has a fighting chance, however - even he admits- he needs a miracle to pull this one out.
The unfortunate thing for Huckabee is that the majority of Republican contests left in the '08 race are not winner take all, meaning McCain can slowly creep to the 1191 delegates needed to assure the nomination without wining a single state.
Going into the Potomac Primaries (Maryland, Virginia, D.C.) on tuesday, however, McCain has substantial leads in each race according to the most recent polls.
The wins show he still has a fighting chance, however - even he admits- he needs a miracle to pull this one out.
The unfortunate thing for Huckabee is that the majority of Republican contests left in the '08 race are not winner take all, meaning McCain can slowly creep to the 1191 delegates needed to assure the nomination without wining a single state.
Going into the Potomac Primaries (Maryland, Virginia, D.C.) on tuesday, however, McCain has substantial leads in each race according to the most recent polls.
Defending Shuster
David Shuster should not have been suspended and dragged into a whole mess of political manuvering. (see Video below)
When Shuster used the term "pimping out" to describe how the Clinton campaign was using Chelsea on the trail, he was not using it in a manner suggesting they were selling her body for the purpose of profit... the phrase "pimp out" has taken on a whole different pop-culture meaning.
And if Shusters words were taken out of context -as they have been - it should not be reflected as a statement on Chelsea, but rather on the Clinton campaign for "pimping her out".
But becuase the campaign is making this out to be a slam on Chelsea, it seems to me that it is clearly a politically motivated move. By trying to create sympathy, they are in essence doing the same thing Hillary did when she cried in New Hampshire. And concerns that Chelsea should be off limits ought to be null - she is an adult and actively campaigning - making calls and speaking to groups. She is now longer a 'child' but rather a member of the staff that is open to criticism.
When Shuster used the term "pimping out" to describe how the Clinton campaign was using Chelsea on the trail, he was not using it in a manner suggesting they were selling her body for the purpose of profit... the phrase "pimp out" has taken on a whole different pop-culture meaning. And if Shusters words were taken out of context -as they have been - it should not be reflected as a statement on Chelsea, but rather on the Clinton campaign for "pimping her out".
But becuase the campaign is making this out to be a slam on Chelsea, it seems to me that it is clearly a politically motivated move. By trying to create sympathy, they are in essence doing the same thing Hillary did when she cried in New Hampshire. And concerns that Chelsea should be off limits ought to be null - she is an adult and actively campaigning - making calls and speaking to groups. She is now longer a 'child' but rather a member of the staff that is open to criticism.
Obama Rolls
Barack Obama swept all five contests this weekend, taking Washington, Louisiana, Nebraska, Maine, and the Virgin Islands. This wasn't just a sweep, but rather a pounding - as he took 59% -70% in the 4 states, and 90% in the Virgin Islands.
This puts added rpessure on the Clinton camp in Virginia and Wisconsin, perhaps the only two states in a string of ten since Super Tuesday has a chance of winning. (Virginia, Maryland, and D.C. vote in the "Potomac Primaries" on Tuesday).
Wisconsin and Hawaii vote a week from tuesday, both of which are leaning towards Obama. The Illinois senator spent his formative years in Hawaii and is considered a bit of a native son, and Wisconsin has a history of voting very progressively inthe Democratic primary.
Clinton has fired her campaign manager and now must focus on getting wins in Ohio and Texas on March 4th - hoping to stop the flood of wins by Obama.
This puts added rpessure on the Clinton camp in Virginia and Wisconsin, perhaps the only two states in a string of ten since Super Tuesday has a chance of winning. (Virginia, Maryland, and D.C. vote in the "Potomac Primaries" on Tuesday).
Wisconsin and Hawaii vote a week from tuesday, both of which are leaning towards Obama. The Illinois senator spent his formative years in Hawaii and is considered a bit of a native son, and Wisconsin has a history of voting very progressively inthe Democratic primary.
Clinton has fired her campaign manager and now must focus on getting wins in Ohio and Texas on March 4th - hoping to stop the flood of wins by Obama.
Friday, February 8, 2008
Chelsea "Pimped Out"
There is a heated back and forth between MSNBC reporter David Shuster and the Hillary campaign following a comment by teh reporter on the news network.
Here's the comment:
In my opinion, while the Clinton campaign has every right to be upset over the remark, they are proving that the stink they are making over it is purely political.
#1 This was not a derrogatory comment about Chelsea, rather one towards the Clinton campaign. They are playing the gender card here, when they way teh reporter was using the term was in no way meant to be derrogatory.
#2 The Clinton campaign is saying they now won't take part in the MSNBC debate in Ohio, a debate they asked for. All of this garners more press about the incident, and draws out the "Hillary's campaign is being attacked by sexist pigs" storyline.
I agree with Shuster, that while a bit off-handed, has been taken WAY out of context. He's been suspended for 3 weeks, and the Clintons should shut up about it and take part in the debate. MSNBC went overboard - and the Clintons should stop playing politics with this.
Here's the comment:
In my opinion, while the Clinton campaign has every right to be upset over the remark, they are proving that the stink they are making over it is purely political.
#1 This was not a derrogatory comment about Chelsea, rather one towards the Clinton campaign. They are playing the gender card here, when they way teh reporter was using the term was in no way meant to be derrogatory.
#2 The Clinton campaign is saying they now won't take part in the MSNBC debate in Ohio, a debate they asked for. All of this garners more press about the incident, and draws out the "Hillary's campaign is being attacked by sexist pigs" storyline.
I agree with Shuster, that while a bit off-handed, has been taken WAY out of context. He's been suspended for 3 weeks, and the Clintons should shut up about it and take part in the debate. MSNBC went overboard - and the Clintons should stop playing politics with this.
Delegate Dilemma
Oh what a tangled web the Democrats weave...
The Democrats have done two things to their presidential nominated system that may bite them in the backside this year:
#1 They award delegates (pledged delegates) on a proportional basis - essencially to allow for second place to get some points in each state.
#2 They allowed for 'Super Delegates' from each state. These are Democratic Governors, Democratic Memebers of Congress, old Democratic leaders, and former Democratic presidents.
Why does this matter?
There are 4,049 Delegates overall. One candidate needs to have 2025 to ensure the nomination.
3,253 are Pledged Delegates. These are the delegates candidates earn by winning primaries and caucuses. Again, these are given out on a proportional basis, i.e. In Minnesota (72 Pledged Delegates), Barack Obama won 67% of the vote to Hillary's 32%. That gave Obama 48 pledged delegates, and Clinton 24 - based on percentages. Some states will even break down those delegates based on how many precincts they won - but it typically averages out to each candidate getting delegates at the same ratio as the popular vote.
The remaining 796 delegates are Super Delegates. As I listed above, these are the party big-wigs. They can choose to vote however they like, change their mind, decide whenever they want - as long as they make a decision by the Democratic National Convention. Typically, the Superdelegates will vote along the lines of how their district or their state votes. (There are 16 superdelegates from Minnesota, some have already endorsed Obama, others to Clinton).
As it stands right now, Barack Obama has the most pledged delegates at 908. Clinton is right behind with 884. But once you add the Superdelegates, Clinton holds a 1079-1009 lead.
357 Superdelegates have not endorsed. 1435 pledged delegates are left to awarded.
So, let's say this race goes on pace as we've been going - pretty much 50-50... maybe even give one candidate a little edge 53-47% over the next two months (which would be a landslide in the election).
That would give Clinton (with 53%) 760 pledged delegates through the rest of the race, giving her a total of 1839 delegates (well short of the 2025 total) and It would give Obama (with 47%) 675 - a total of 1684.
Neither would have the 2025 need to ensure the nomination... leaving the decision up to the Superdelegates.
Clinton would need 186 of the super delegates. Obama would basically need all of them. In this instance, would appear Clinton would get the Nod. However, it's unlikely that the electorate will break in favor of either candidate by that much.
SO - according to DNC Chair Howard Dean - he wants to avoid what's called a "Brokered Convention" at all costs. A Brokered Covnention is something we haven't seen in decades, where the delegates on the floor actully do deal-making at the convention - and go back and forth until one candidate gets the majority vote - typically after several ballots.
This would be bad for the party because it would only allow a few weeks for the democrats to get behind one candidate. You run the risk of sore losers, jaded voters, and a fractured party.... and ultimately open the door for the Republicans to win what's considered - at the moment - to be an unwinnable election.
What you may see happen is if one candidate does start to pull out ahead after Texas and Ohio vote, the DNC Chair may have to get both campaigns in a room and say "Look, we need to have one of you drop out and the other run as VP".
The interesting thing is Obama will be going on a run the next couple of weeks (likely winning 8 of the next 9). If his momentum carries him to a win and close second in the delegate-rich Texas and Ohio respectively - Clinton would likely be asked to step down. If she wins both Texas and Ohio, there will be more butting heads. Clinton doesn't lose well.
The problem will come if Obama is asked to sit down and run as VP if Hillary sweeps Texas and Ohio by close margins. It would turn so many people off who have never been involved in the process. And in my opinon, the democrats have a very real chance of once again, "grabbing defeat out of the jaws of victory".
The superdelegates shouldn't be deciding the nominee.
The Democrats have done two things to their presidential nominated system that may bite them in the backside this year:
#1 They award delegates (pledged delegates) on a proportional basis - essencially to allow for second place to get some points in each state.
#2 They allowed for 'Super Delegates' from each state. These are Democratic Governors, Democratic Memebers of Congress, old Democratic leaders, and former Democratic presidents.
Why does this matter?
There are 4,049 Delegates overall. One candidate needs to have 2025 to ensure the nomination.
3,253 are Pledged Delegates. These are the delegates candidates earn by winning primaries and caucuses. Again, these are given out on a proportional basis, i.e. In Minnesota (72 Pledged Delegates), Barack Obama won 67% of the vote to Hillary's 32%. That gave Obama 48 pledged delegates, and Clinton 24 - based on percentages. Some states will even break down those delegates based on how many precincts they won - but it typically averages out to each candidate getting delegates at the same ratio as the popular vote.
The remaining 796 delegates are Super Delegates. As I listed above, these are the party big-wigs. They can choose to vote however they like, change their mind, decide whenever they want - as long as they make a decision by the Democratic National Convention. Typically, the Superdelegates will vote along the lines of how their district or their state votes. (There are 16 superdelegates from Minnesota, some have already endorsed Obama, others to Clinton).
As it stands right now, Barack Obama has the most pledged delegates at 908. Clinton is right behind with 884. But once you add the Superdelegates, Clinton holds a 1079-1009 lead.
357 Superdelegates have not endorsed. 1435 pledged delegates are left to awarded.
So, let's say this race goes on pace as we've been going - pretty much 50-50... maybe even give one candidate a little edge 53-47% over the next two months (which would be a landslide in the election).
That would give Clinton (with 53%) 760 pledged delegates through the rest of the race, giving her a total of 1839 delegates (well short of the 2025 total) and It would give Obama (with 47%) 675 - a total of 1684.
Neither would have the 2025 need to ensure the nomination... leaving the decision up to the Superdelegates.
Clinton would need 186 of the super delegates. Obama would basically need all of them. In this instance, would appear Clinton would get the Nod. However, it's unlikely that the electorate will break in favor of either candidate by that much.
SO - according to DNC Chair Howard Dean - he wants to avoid what's called a "Brokered Convention" at all costs. A Brokered Covnention is something we haven't seen in decades, where the delegates on the floor actully do deal-making at the convention - and go back and forth until one candidate gets the majority vote - typically after several ballots.
This would be bad for the party because it would only allow a few weeks for the democrats to get behind one candidate. You run the risk of sore losers, jaded voters, and a fractured party.... and ultimately open the door for the Republicans to win what's considered - at the moment - to be an unwinnable election.
What you may see happen is if one candidate does start to pull out ahead after Texas and Ohio vote, the DNC Chair may have to get both campaigns in a room and say "Look, we need to have one of you drop out and the other run as VP".
The interesting thing is Obama will be going on a run the next couple of weeks (likely winning 8 of the next 9). If his momentum carries him to a win and close second in the delegate-rich Texas and Ohio respectively - Clinton would likely be asked to step down. If she wins both Texas and Ohio, there will be more butting heads. Clinton doesn't lose well.
The problem will come if Obama is asked to sit down and run as VP if Hillary sweeps Texas and Ohio by close margins. It would turn so many people off who have never been involved in the process. And in my opinon, the democrats have a very real chance of once again, "grabbing defeat out of the jaws of victory".
The superdelegates shouldn't be deciding the nominee.
WA Gov. Endorses Obama
Washington Governor Chris Gregoire is endorsing Barack Obama, she announced Friday morning - just one day before the Stat's Democratic caucus. This will be a big boost for Obama who not only gets the godo press, but Gregoire is a Superdelegate for the Democratic National Convention.
Franken In Strong Position
Democratic U.S. Senate hopeful Al Franken is in a very good position after the vast majority of delegates selected to the state DFL convention were Franken supporters. According to a completely unscientific poll done by the Franken campaign, he carried about 3000 votes, compared to two of his competitors who both barely eclipsed 600.
Franken, a former SNL actor and host of his own Air America talk show, is running against Republican Sen. Norm Coleman in the 2008 election. Franken has to be excited about the democratic turnout in the Minnesota primary earlier this week. If the Democratic Presidential nominee is Barack Obama, Franken is almost a shoe-in for the seat, assuming turnout remains high.
First Jesse, now Franken... only in Minnesota.
Dobson For Huckabee
The Huck is picking up some key conservative endorsements (which would have been nice before Super Tuesday, but he'll take them none-the-less). Focus on the Family's Dr. James Dobson appears to be throwing his support behind Mike Huckabee.
Dobson went on the record saying he would never vote for McCain.
Can Hillary Lose?
As in, can she fall with grace? Peggy Noonan makes some good points about how Hillary is 'fighting tooth and nail' for the nomination that may be an indication of how she might react if she were to lose.
Thursday, February 7, 2008
Gore To Endorse?
More Debates
It looks like the two democratic candidates for president will be duking it out a few more times before critical states like Ohio and Texas have their primaries. Barack Obama confirmed today that there would be atleast 2 debates - including one in Ohio, before March 4th.
The Clinton camp had been pushing for a debate a week, but the Obama camp has turned down that offer.
Conventional thinking would be that a debate favors Clinton, giving her time to show her vast knowledge of the issues and potential for Obama to slip up. However, it also puts Hillary in a position to answer a very uncomfortable question over and over again: Why did you vote for the War in Iraq?
Politics in Hillaryland
Fool me once...
It looks like the Hillary camp has played on emotions to get what they want once again.
A day after Hillary shed a tear over personal distress in her campaign, she won a surprise victory in New Hampshire. Today, her campaign is reeling in $4 Million in online contributions after staff was told they would need to work without pay. But now, according to that same staff, they ARE getting paid as planned.
ABC News is questioning this strategy as a stunt, saying it may have all been part of the plan.
The Huck
Does the Huck have a fighting chance? Unfortunately, as much as I'm for the underdog, I don't think he's going to get the support he needs to steal the nomination from John McCain.
The only thing that might save him is if Romney suddenly endorses him. However, that is unlikely since he stepped away "for the good of the party" so that it can get behind one candidate. (Romney did not imply McCain, however)
We'll see how it plays out. One thing is for sure: Conservative Talk radio no longer has a say as to who is running in the Republican party. Sorry Rush...
The only thing that might save him is if Romney suddenly endorses him. However, that is unlikely since he stepped away "for the good of the party" so that it can get behind one candidate. (Romney did not imply McCain, however)
We'll see how it plays out. One thing is for sure: Conservative Talk radio no longer has a say as to who is running in the Republican party. Sorry Rush...
Romney Drops Out
Mitt Romney has bowed out of the 2008 race for the presidency. It is now down to front-runner John McCain, Mike Huckabee, and Ron Paul are the three left standing for hte GOP nomination. McCain looks to be in the best position to wrap up the nomination, especially if Romney does not endorse Huckabee.
Full Story
My New Blog
After annoying all my friend with E-mails about politics they could care less about, I've decided to start a new blog.
This blog is designed to let me vent, and inform, if you are willing to stomach it. We'll see how it goes.
This blog is designed to let me vent, and inform, if you are willing to stomach it. We'll see how it goes.
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