Land of Cheese In Play

I’ve said before that Wisconsin is a battleground in the Dem Primary – and it is now more than ever. But while the Clinton campaign will play it down (saying the real states that matter are TX, OH, PE, etc), they are furiously trying to get the vote in Wisconsin. Here’s the scenario:



Barack Obama will soon have a Delegate lead (even adding up to the Super Delegates, which he trails Hillary by about 80 - See Delegate 101 ). But in terms of pledged delegates and the popular vote, Obama is way out ahead. The argument is going to be made as we get closer to the election that whoever has more pledged delegates (these are the delegates people actually vote for) ought to get the support of the super Delegates, rather than the super delegates simply deciding against the will of the people and giving the nomination to the other candidate.



At this point, Obama leads in Pledged Delegates 1104-979. That’s a 125 delegate lead… and that’s huge. Hillary is trying to win big in Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. They have a combined pledged delegate total of 492. So right now, Clinton would have to win those three states by an average margin of 62% (309-183) in order to take back the pledged delegate lead. That’s tough by itself. But If Obama runs away with Wisconsin – say by winning 60% of their 74 pledged delegates – he’d increase that 125 delegate lead to 139. Then she’d need to take 66% of those three big states to take back the lead.



Fact is, Clinton NEEDS to perform well in Wisconsin. And despite her campaign saying only Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania matter – they are going balls to the wall in the Dairyland.



(Just watch how often Bill, Hill, and Chelsea parade through the state)…